The reduced-capacity crowd at the Estadio Monumental in Buenos Aires will be expecting nothing less than a repetition of the show that Lionel Messi and reigning South American champions Argentina put on Sunday against Uruguay in a 3-0 win. But they may not have such a willing participant in visiting Peru.
While Argentina is sitting pretty in second place in the South American World Cup qualifying standings, which would give it a direct ticket to the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar, Peru (eighth place, 11 points) is scraping just to stay alive for the playoff spot that’s granted to fifth place.
Coached by Argentine Ricardo Gareca, Peru will be looking to make life tough on Argentina and try to come away with at least a draw, especially given the absence of several of their most influential players.
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Argentina vs. Peru live score
Argentina vs. Peru live updates, highlights from World Cup qualifier
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(All times Eastern)
18th min.: The masked forward, Lapadula, is a one-man wrecking crew for Peru while the rest of his teammates sit back. Meanwhile, Angel Di Maria thought he earned a corner kick, but it turns out he was offside. He doesn’t like the call.
9th min.: Messi earns a free kick and it’s delivered into the box where Cuti Romero heads home, but he’s offside. The VAR check took a while.
5th min.: Peru with the first extended spell of possession and Yoshimar Yotun earns a free kick about 20 yards out. Lapadula puts his laces through it and Dibu Martinez has to come up with a big save.
4th min.: What a pass by Messi! He feeds Di Maria wide left and the cross goes across the face of goal, just like De Paul’s. Argentina firing warning shots.
1st min.: We’re off and just 40 seconds into the match Rodrigo De Paul sends a cross right across the six-yard box, but there are no teammates there to take advantage.
7:34 p.m.: Unique rendition of the Argentine anthem. Peru’s follows:
7:05 p.m.: The stadium looks full:
6:50 p.m.: The scenes around the Monumental in Buenos Aires:
6:24 p.m.: Peru arriving at the Estadio Monumental:
Argentina vs. Peru: Lineups
Head coach Lionel Scaloni has a full squad available for selection and, as usual with his lineups, he has several interchangeable parts — such is the competitive level of Argentina’s roster. Reports indicated the lone injury concern was left back Marcos Acuna, but he recovered from the muscle injury that kept him out of the victory against Uruguay. At right back, no break for Nahuel Molina, who started the other two matches in this October window.
MORE: Even Messi couldn’t believe his shot turned into a goal
Argentina projected starting lineup (4-3-3, left to right): 23-Emiliano “Dibu” Martinez-GK — 8-Marcos Acuna, 19-Nicolas Otamendi, 13-Cristian Romero, 21-Nahuel Molina — 20-Giovani Lo Celso, 5-Leandro Paredes, 7-Rodrigo De Paul — 10-Lionel Messi, 22-Lautaro Martinez, 11-Angel Di Maria
Argentina projected subs: 1-Franco Armani-GK, 12-Esteban Andrada, 2-Lisandro Martinez, 6-German Pezzella, 3-Nicolas Tagliafico, 4-Gonzalo Montiel, 18-Guido Rodriguez, 14-Exequiel Palacios, 17-Lucas Alario, 9-Angel Correa, 16-Joaquin Correa, 15-Nicolas Gonzalez
(Not in squad: Juan Musso-GK, Lucas Martinez Quarta, Facundo Medina, Julian Alvarez, Nicolas Dominguez, Juan Foyth, Alejandro “Papu” Gomez)
Peru will be without a number of starting-caliber players: Paolo Guerrero, Renato Tapia, Edison Flores, Andre Carrillo and Luis Advincula, who joined the list with a muscle strain. Sergio Pena didn’t make the squad; Christofer Gonzales will start in midfield.
Peru projected starting lineup (4-2-3-1, left to right): 1-Pedro Gallese-GK — 6-Miguel Trauco, 22-Alexander Callens, 5-Carlos Zambrano, 4-Jhilmar Lora — 19-Yoshimar Yotun, 23-Pedro Aquino — 11-Raziel Garcia, 16-Christofer Gonzales, 8-Christian Cueva — 9-Gianluca Lapadula
Peru projected subs: 21-Jose Carvallo-GK, 12-Carlos Caceda-GK, 3-Marcos Lopez, 2-Luis Abram, 7-Miguel Araujo, 15-Christian Ramos, 13-Wilder Cartagena, 10-Jefferson Farfan, 14-Gabriel Costa, 18-Santiago Ormeno, 20-Horacio Calcaterra, 17-Alex Valera
(Not in squad: Sergio Pena, Oslimg Mora)
How to watch Argentina vs. Peru
- Date: Thursday, Oct. 14
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Streaming: fuboTV
Argentina vs. Peru and every World Cup qualifying match in South America can be streamed exclusively on fuboTV in English and Spanish.
The matches are also available on a pay-per-view basis via cable and satellite TV providers.
Argentina vs. Peru: Betting odds & prediction
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
Pick: Under 2.75 Asian total goals (+105)
Especially in light of their absences, Peru will likely aim to get out of town with a draw. That would require a conservative strategy predicated on interrupting the flow of the game. You don’t want to get in a track meet against Argentina’s transition game.
For an example of what to potentially expect, take Peru’s road game in Brazil in September: 29 combined fouls, nine total yellow cards and only five total shots on target. In the October 2017 scoreless draw in Buenos Aires, also with Gareca as its coach, Peru only took two shots.
The under 2.5 total goals (+125) has a shot in this game, but the Asian total is a safer play. In Peru’s past nine qualifiers, only two have seen three or more goals. Two of Argentina’s five home qualifiers have gone over. And when these two teams played in Peru in November 2020, it was a 2-0 Argentina win.
The under 2.75 Asian total refunds half the bet if it’s exactly a three-goal game.
Prediction: Argentina 2, Peru 0
- Moneyline: Argentina -575 | Draw +650 | Peru +1600
- Spread: Argentina -2.5 (+145) | Peru +2.5 (-190)
- O/U 2.5 total goals: Over -155 | Under +125
- Both teams to score: Yes +180 | No -240